China's manufacturing industry will continue to grow

According to the analysis article of the National Information Center, in 2009, due to the tremendous changes in the domestic and international economic environment, the growth rate of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will inevitably be adjusted. However, the deepening of domestic economic restructuring, the enhancement of industrial technology upgrading requirements, the acceleration of urbanization process and the increase of national policies to expand domestic demand will be the long-term factors to promote the development of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry. In general, the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will still maintain a certain growth rate.
1. Economic structure upgrading and technological progress are the fundamental factors to promote the long-term and stable development of mechanical equipment manufacturing industry
For a long time, industrial structure adjustment and technology upgrading will be one of the main lines of China's national economic development. The adjustment of product structure, the improvement of production process, the technical transformation of equipment and equipment, and the development and use of automation and large-scale packaging equipment require the mechanical equipment industry to provide advanced and modern production equipment in all industries to improve the modernization level of the national economy. The sustainable development strategy of the national economy proposes that the investment should focus on the use of energy saving and environmental protection production equipment, which also requires the mechanical equipment industry to provide safer and more advanced production equipment. For example, power, petrochemical, metallurgy, coal, textile, light industry, building materials and many other industrial fields need more efficient, automated and clean production equipment in the construction of new projects to improve the scientific and technological content and added value of products. In addition, in the process of promoting structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, the demand for the variety, level, quality and performance of mechanical products in the road, transportation and other transportation industries will also be greatly improved. Efficient, energy-saving, low pollution, intelligent and supporting mechanical products will gradually become the mainstream of the market. At the same time, the machinery industry itself also needs a large number of advanced processing equipment and testing instruments for industrial upgrading and technical transformation. With the intensification of market competition and the acceleration of enterprise technology upgrading, the enterprise's investment in technological transformation will remain at a certain scale. At the same time, national policy support will encourage enterprises to increase investment in new equipment, and domestic demand for high-end mechanical equipment products will continue to increase. Therefore, the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the national economy will form a huge demand for the mechanical equipment industry for a long time.
2. The rising trend of energy raw material prices slowed down, and the pressure on industry costs eased
In 2008, the price of energy raw materials rose rapidly, which caused a certain cost pressure on the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry and affected the growth of industrial economic benefits. However, as the overheated growth of the national economy has been effectively curbed, coupled with the spread of the US financial crisis, the international economic situation shows signs of slowing down. The development of the world economy will slow down to a certain extent, and the growth of energy and raw material demand will also slow down, which will limit the rising trend of energy and raw material prices to a certain extent. At present, the price of crude oil in the international market has dropped rapidly from a high level, and the rise of steel and non-ferrous metals has ended. As concerns about the future growth of the world economy have intensified, the prices of energy and raw materials will rise again in a short period of time, and will remain slightly volatile for a certain period of time. On the whole, the cost of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will not increase further, but will decrease, which will help the industry maintain a certain profit growth.
As an industry with relatively high technology content, the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry has a strong tolerance for the rise of energy and raw material prices. Although the profit growth has declined significantly since 2008, it still shows a good level of economic benefits. The growth rate and profitability of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry in the future will depend more on the level of added value of products and the speed of technological progress, which is an important basis for the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry to maintain stable growth in the face of volatile energy and raw material prices.
3. The development of rural economy provides new market opportunities for agricultural equipment
In recent two years, the market demand for machinery products has become a new hot spot, and the growth rate of agricultural machinery has maintained a rapid growth. With the implementation of various agricultural preferential policies, especially the increase of agricultural subsidies, farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing agricultural machinery has been improved, effectively promoting the sustainable development of agricultural machinery. After the Third Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the state again increased subsidies for agricultural means of production, at the same time liberalized the circulation of rural land use rights, encouraged the concentration of land to large households, and developed economies of scale, which will effectively promote the growth of demand for agricultural production machinery.
After years of efforts, the state has strengthened the process of rural power grid transformation. The increase of rural electricity consumption has greatly promoted the farmers' demand for small agricultural machinery and irrigation equipment, improved the use conditions of agricultural machinery, and made agricultural machinery develop rapidly. In the future, the adjustment of the agricultural and rural economic structure will continue to increase, and the mechanization and modernization of the agricultural production mode will also continue to improve, so as to improve the efficiency of agricultural production. In this process, higher and newer requirements are put forward for agricultural machinery and equipment. With the deepening of the reform of the rural economic system and the strengthening of the degree of marketization in the field of agricultural product circulation, the mechanization level of agricultural product production, storage, processing, transportation and other links needs to be constantly improved. At the same time, facility agriculture, green agriculture and water-saving irrigation agriculture will accelerate their development in economically developed areas of China, and the requirements for equipment will be further improved.
4. The export of machinery products continued to grow
As a big country in machinery industry, China still has great export potential for some machinery products with comparative advantages, such as small and medium-sized agricultural machinery, medium-sized power engineering machinery, ordinary machine tools, mid-range scientific testing instruments, optical instruments and other products have a large market in the world. In particular, China accelerated the implementation of the "going global" strategy, encouraged enterprises to carry out overseas project contracting and cooperation, and made considerable progress in the construction of economic and technological cooperation projects. These advances will greatly promote the export of related machinery products. Although the spread of the US financial crisis will have a certain impact on the growth of the world economy, especially the economic growth of developed countries will face certain difficulties, the export markets of China's machinery products are mostly developing countries and emerging countries. These economies still have great development potential. The demand for China's machinery products will still maintain a certain growth, which will also drive the export of China's machinery and equipment manufacturing industry to a certain level.
5. Expanding domestic demand and implementing the western development strategy will drive the growth of demand for mechanical products
With the steady progress of the Western Development Plan, the West to East Power Transmission Project and the West to East Gas Transmission Project have greatly promoted the development of power generation equipment, power transmission and transformation equipment, and driven the growth of a large number of general machinery; The construction of key highway, railway, construction, water conservancy, power, airport and other infrastructure projects in the western region has provided new development opportunities for the production of engineering construction machinery and related professional equipment. Especially in the face of the impact of the world economic downturn on the domestic economy, China will increase investment in infrastructure and introduce an investment stimulus plan totaling 4 trillion yuan, which will strongly stimulate the growth of domestic demand. It can be predicted that in the process of comprehensively promoting modernization, the investment and construction of infrastructure will be a long-term process, which will keep the domestic machinery and equipment industry in a relatively favorable development environment.
In general, the demand for mechanical equipment will grow steadily for a long time in the future, but the demand structure will continue to adjust and change. The demand for general products declined, overcapacity became more serious, and the demand for high-end products, technology modernization products, and products in new areas continued to rise.